RBA Holds Rates, Aussie Dollar Slips

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AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS

  • RBA holds off on price hike with 4.35% the potential peak.
  • US ISM providers PMI beneath the highlight later right this moment.
  • AUD/USD bears testing 200-day MA.

Elevate your buying and selling abilities and achieve a aggressive edge. Get your fingers on the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR This fall outlook right this moment for unique insights into key market catalysts that needs to be on each dealer’s radar.

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Get Your Free AUD Forecast

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The Australian greenback was topic to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate of interest choice earlier this morning the place the central financial institution expectedly determined to maintain charges on maintain at 4.35%. A fast recap to the earlier assembly noticed the RBA hike charges as inflationary pressures, rising housing costs and a good labor market performed a key function within the evaluation. Since then, softening month-to-month CPI indicator knowledge and the lagged affect restrictive financial coverage has weighed on housing costs alongside a barely weaker labor market. Overall, the sturdy jobs market might be probably the most regarding variable for the RBA – much like that of the US financial system and the Federal Reserve.

Money markets have added roughly 13bps (discuss with desk beneath) of extra cumulative price cuts by December 2024 in per week however with room for a further hike ought to or not it’s required. I forecast the RBA to stay knowledge dependent however we might properly be on the peak of the cycle and will look to comply with the trail of different main central banks in 2024. With many banks seeking to lower round mid-2024, the RBA outlook could also be ‘dovishly’ repriced as soon as once more leaving the AUD susceptible to the draw back.

RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES

Source: Refinitiv

Judo Bank PMI”s had been launched previous to the speed announcement and highlighted the slowing Australian financial system by fading additional into contractionary territory reaching yearly lows on each providers and composite metrics. The present account for Q3 additionally moved into unfavorable figures for the primary time since Q3 of 2022, as soon as once more suggestive depressed progress. Later right this moment, the AUD/USD pair shall be firmly centered on US ISM providers PMI’s and JOLTs knowledge as markets put together for Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.

AUD/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR (GMT +02:00)

image2.png

Source: DailyFX financial calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

AUD/USD DAILY CHART

image3.png

Chart ready by Warren Venketas, TradingView

AUD/USD day by day worth motion above exhibits bulls being restricted by trendline resistance (black) coinciding with a push off the overbought one on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Current help now comes from the 200-day shifting common (blue) however might simply break beneath ought to ISM and JOLTs are available in stronger. Remember, escalating tensions within the Middle East have additionally contributed to souring danger sentiment which might complement USD upside.

  • 0.6700
  • Trendline resistance
  • 0.6596

Key help ranges:

  • 200-day MA
  • 0.6500
  • 0.6459
  • 50-day MA
  • 0.6358

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BEARISH (AUD/USD)

IGCS exhibits retail merchants are at the moment internet LONG on AUD/USD, with 61% of merchants at the moment holding lengthy positions.

Download the newest sentiment information (beneath) to see how day by day and weekly positional adjustments have an effect on AUD/USD sentiment and outlook.

Introduction to Technical Analysis

Market Sentiment

Recommended by Warren Venketas

Contact and comply withWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas

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