Crude Oil, WTI, Retail Trader Positioning, Technical Analysis – IGCS Commodities Update
- Crude oil costs all set for a 4th consecutive month-to-month achieve?
- Still-bearish retail dealer publicity gives a bullish outlook
- Prices simply barely break above a key zone of resistance
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Crude oil costs rocketed larger on Wednesday, hovering 3.6 p.c in essentially the most aggressive day since early June. The commodity is heading in the right direction for a 4th consecutive month-to-month achieve. Meanwhile, retail merchants proceed rising bearish publicity. This may be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment, which tends to perform as a contrarian indicator. Will this spell additional positive factors for oil?
Crude Oil Sentiment Outlook – Bullish
According to IGCS, solely about 30% of retail merchants are net-long crude oil. Since the bulk are biased to the draw back, this continues to trace that costs could rise down the highway. Meanwhile, upside bets have decreased by 10.3% and 16.32% in comparison with yesterday and final week, respectively. With that in thoughts, general publicity and up to date adjustments provide a stronger bullish contrarian buying and selling outlook.
of purchasers are internet lengthy.
of purchasers are internet brief.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -10% | 6% | 1% |
| Weekly | -16% | 21% | 7% |
On the every day chart under, WTI has simply barely closed above the 93.72 – 92.43 resistance zone from highs seen in November. That has opened the door to extending the uptrend since earlier this 12 months, exposing the 100% Fibonacci extension stage at 95.63. Just past that’s the August 2022 excessive of 97.65, which can maintain as key resistance.
But, observe that there’s a unfavourable RSI divergence displaying that upside momentum is fading. In the occasion of a flip decrease, dropping by means of the 93.72 – 92.43 former resistance zone locations the concentrate on the 20-day Moving Average. Just under that’s the 61.8% extension at 88.75.
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Crude Oil Daily Chart
Chart Created in Trading View
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com
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