UK Rates and US Data Will Drive GBP/USD

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GBP/USD Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • Gilt yields push sharply greater on renewed UK charge hike expectations.
  • IMF does a 180 on UK progress prospects.
  • Little in the way in which of UK information subsequent week.

Recommended by Nick Cawley

How to Trade GBP/USD

UK headline inflation fell again into single digits, figures confirmed this week however failed to satisfy analyst expectations, whereas the core studying rose to ranges final seen over three many years in the past. While elevated vitality costs began to fall out of the studying, meals costs, particularly, continued to rise, placing the squeeze on shoppers. The monetary markets are forecasting that the Bank Rate will rise from its present degree of 4.5% to no less than 5% over the subsequent couple of conferences with some hawkish forecasters suggesting that the UK central financial institution must go to five.5% to dampen down sticky value pressures.

The UK gilt market took its cue from the inflation report and the next elevated charge hike expectations. Yields throughout the curve rose to multi-month highs as market contributors demanded extra threat premiums for his or her cash. The UK 2-10 gilt curve inverted additional, a warning that the UK is probably going heading in direction of a recession, in distinction to the IMF’s newest replace. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week upgraded the UK’s progress prospects and stated {that a} recession was now unlikely. Staff forecasts now see the UK economic system increasing by 0.4% in Q2 in comparison with a contraction of 0.6% predicted by the Fund again in January. The newest S&P UK PMIs additionally predict that the UK economic system will develop by 0.4% in Q2.

British Pound (GBP/USD) Latest: IMF U-Turn, UK PMIs, US Debt Talks

UK 2-Year Gilt Yield Daily Chart


Next week’s financial calendar reveals little in the way in which of any significant UK information or occasions. The US docket nonetheless reveals a handful of excessive essential releases with subsequent Friday’s US Jobs Report the decide of the bunch. The US labor market stays strong and is likely one of the explanation why inflation within the US is refusing to make any significant transfer decrease.


For all market-moving occasions and information releases see the real-time DailyFX Calendar

To spherical off subsequent week’s occasions, the US debt ceiling negotiations enter what’s prone to be the house stretch because the X-date, June 1 nears. The newest chatter from the US is that the 2 sides at the moment are a lot nearer to reaching an settlement, though it stays to be seen if they’ll get any deal over the road in time.

Debt Ceiling Blues, Part 79. What Happens if the US Defaults?

Cable (GBP/USD) will stay beneath the affect of a powerful US greenback and heightened UK charge expectations subsequent week. The four-day week will doubtless see elevated GBP/USD volatility round US information releases and debt ceiling talks. The pair examined and rejected the 1.2300 deal with yesterday and right now and whereas this huge determine stays in view it’s cheap to anticipate that it is going to be examined once more. Adding to the detrimental outlook, GBP/USD now trades under each the 20- and 50-day shifting averages, though the pair look oversold utilizing the CCI indicator. Volatility in cable stays low and this appears to be like set to alter with all the info releases and macro occasions out subsequent week.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart – May 26, 2023


Chart through TradingView

of shoppers are internet lengthy.

of shoppers are internet brief.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -9% 2% -4%
Weekly 3% -12% -4%

Retail Trader Signals are Mixed

Retail dealer information present 57.83% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants lengthy to brief at 1.37 to 1.The variety of merchants net-long is 2.04% decrease than yesterday and 1.43% decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 1.79% decrease than yesterday and seven.38% decrease from final week.

We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests GBP/USD costs might proceed to fall. Positioning is much less net-long than yesterday however extra net-long from final week. The mixture of present sentiment and up to date adjustments provides us a additional combined GBP/USD buying and selling bias.

What is your view on the GBP/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can tell us through the shape on the finish of this piece or you possibly can contact the writer through Twitter @nickcawley1.

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