S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook – Long-Term Downtrends Meet Short-Term Uptrends

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – Technical Forecasts and Analysis

  • S&P 500 testing an necessary longer-term downtrend.
  • Nasdaq 100 struggling to carry features regardless of development break.

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US fairness markets are giving again a few of their weekly features after the most recent labor report confirmed that the US jobs market stays resilient. The NFP launch – 263k jobs created vs expectations of 200k – turned threat markets damaging on the day, with US shares markets between 1% and 1.5% as we write. Despite the losses, US indices stay in optimistic territory for the week, aided on Wednesday by a mildly dovish speech from Fed chair Jerome Powell.

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The S&P 500 is presently urgent towards a longer-term downtrend off the January 2022 excessive. This development – decrease highs and decrease lows – is being challenged by a shorter-term uptrend off the October 13 low, with yesterday’s tried break rejected. In addition, the 200-day transferring common can also be in play, including to a combined technical image. A confirmed break larger ought to see additional features for the S&P 500 with the August 16 swing excessive at 4328 as the subsequent important goal.

S&P 500 Daily Price Chart – December 2, 2022

of purchasers are internet lengthy.

of purchasers are internet quick.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -1% 0%
Weekly -1% -1% -1%

Retail dealer knowledge reveals 42.06% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants quick to lengthy at 1.38 to 1.The variety of merchants net-long is 3.89% larger than yesterday and 5.03% decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 0.69% decrease than yesterday and 1.41% larger from final week.

We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-short suggests US 500 costs could proceed to rise. Positioning is much less net-short than yesterday however extra net-short from final week. The mixture of present sentiment and up to date adjustments provides us an extra combined US 500 buying and selling bias.

The Nasdaq 100 chart additionally reveals a dominant downtrend however this has been damaged by the short-term uptrend, including a barely extra optimistic bias to the chart. Again the outlook is combined, this time as a result of present worth being manner beneath the 200-day transferring common – spot worth at 11,883 vs. 200-dma at 12,527. For the Nasdaq’s sentiment to show longer-term optimistic, each the 200-dma and the mid-August swing excessive at 13,719 will have to be reclaimed, and that appears like a really troublesome proposition within the present market local weather.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Price Chart – December 2, 2022


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What is your view on US Indices – bullish or bearish?? You can tell us by way of the shape on the finish of this piece or you possibly can contact the creator by way of Twitter @nickcawley1.

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