U.S. Indices Technical Outlook:
- S&P 500 could also be nearing finish of bounce-mode
- Nasdaq 100 struggling to commerce above 200-day MA
- Dow Jones lacks the identical look, however will comply with remainder of market
Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Reaches Pivotal Spot
The S&P 500 simply turned again down from the Feb 2 excessive, maybe forging a stronger ceiling for the market to get via. This comes inside the context of what I consider to be a counter-trend transfer and never the start of one other bull-leg greater.
A decrease excessive from the Jan report excessive is anticipated and will even arrange a nice-looking head-and-shoulders sample, in not solely the SPX however NDX as effectively. It may take some extra time earlier than the restoration bounce is finally completed, however for now working with 4595 as resistance.
To give the draw back some legs and a break is seen as wanted under 4451, the Feb low (making a lower-low), and the 200-day shifting common. The two technical thresholds are at the moment in actual confluence.
At that juncture the potential of a maturing H&S sample involves the forefront with the precise shoulder taking form. It will nonetheless take a break of the neckline (dotted pink line in chart) to totally set off the sample. For now, utilizing each famous short-term ranges as motion factors.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
S&P 500 Chart by TradingView
The Nasdaq 100 head-and-shoulders has it in even a extra susceptible spot given the way it tilts decrease on the chart and the truth that the NDX is buying and selling outdoors of the bull channel courting to September 2020. The breaking of the bull channel over the last sell-off is taken into account a big occasion.
In the near-term, the 200-day shifting common is presenting to be problematic as we mentioned final week. The incapability to rise above 15052 and the Feb 2 excessive at 15196 will proceed to make that space a focus as a ceiling and doable proper shoulder to the H&S formation. A breakdown under 14452 will assist tilt the image in direction of a neckline take a look at, in any case.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart
Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView
The Dow Jones made a slight short-term higher-high, persevering with to show relative energy in comparison with the NDX and broader SPX indices. This might very effectively proceed to be the case, making it a tougher brief within the near-term. But if we’re to see true risk-off, then the Dow will at roll over in some unspecified time in the future with an analogous vigor because the broader market. The excessive within the near-tern to observe is 35824 and the low is 34799.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
Dow Jones Chart by TradingView
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can comply with Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
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