SPX Recovery Levels– Bear Market Rebound?

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S&P 500 Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • S&P 500 technical commerce stage replace – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • SPX500 breakdown approaching key technical zone- threat for inflection
  • Resistance 4493, 4521, 4592(key) – Support 4245, 4197 (essential)

The S&P 500 plunged greater than 12.4% off the month-to-month highs with the index rebounding off downtrend assist final week. The focus is on this restoration off the lows with the rebound now concentrating on downtrend resistance. Is a low in place? These are the targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the SPX500 technical worth charts heading into the February open / non-farm payrolls this week. Review my newest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this SPX500 setup and extra.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; SPX500 on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my final SPX500 technical outlook our backside line famous that the, “Risk remains for a larger washout while within this formation and we’re looking to validate a near-term low next week.” Indeed a low registered simply days later with the index plummeting to 4222 earlier than rebounding sharply. The decline & restoration retains SPX throughout the confines of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been monitoring of the yearly excessive with the current rally now breaking above the median-line.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 240min

S&P 500 Price Chart - SPX500 240min - SPX Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; SPX500 on Tradingview

Notes: A more in-depth take a look at SPX worth motion exhibits the index breaking out of a near-term consolidation sample on the decrease parallels with the rally now approaching preliminary resistance ranges on the December lows at 4493 and the 75% parallel / 50% retracement at 4521– an space of curiosity for potential topside exahustion. Ultimately, a breach / shut above the higher parallel / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly vary at 4592 could be wanted to recommend a extra vital low is place / validate a bigger reversal. Support stays regular with the May excessive at 4245 with a break decrease trying to problem a extra vital zone on the 23.6% retracement of the 2020 advance at 4197.

Bottom line: A restoration off downtrend assist has us searching for a response into downtrend resistance. From at buying and selling standpoint, look to scale back long-exposure / increase protecting stops on a stretch in the direction of the higher parallels – pullbacks must be restricted to as we speak’s low (4404) IF worth is heading increased with an in depth above 4591 wanted to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Stay nimble heading into the month-to-month open with US ISM knowledge and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on faucet into the shut of the week.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, overview his Foundations of Technical Analysis collection on Building a Trading Strategy

S&P 500 Trader Sentiment – US500 Price Chart

S&P 500 Trader Sentiment - US500 Price Chart - SPX500 Retail Positioning - SPX Technical Outlook

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long the S&P 500- the ratio stands at +1.75 (63.21% of merchants are lengthy) – sometimes bearishstudying
  • Long positions are15.44% increased than yesterday and three.54% decrease from final week
  • Short positions are 9.77% increased than yesterday and 0.47% increased from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests US 500 costs could proceed to fall. Trader are extra net-long than yesterday however much less net-long from final week. The mixture of present positioning and up to date adjustments offers us an additional combined US 500 buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

US Economic Calendar

US Economic Calendar - S&P 500 Weekly Event Risk - ISM PMI - NFP on tap

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion threat.

Active Technical Setups

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex

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