EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?

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Euro, EUR/USD, Majors-Based Euro Index, IGCS – Technical Outlook

  • Euro has been making an attempt to combat again following persistent losses
  • Still, a majors-based index and EUR/USD stay pressured
  • Most retail merchants are lengthy the Euro, is that this a bearish signal?

Majors-Based Euro Index – Daily Chart

Taking a take a look at a majors-based Euro index, which averages the only forex in opposition to the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Australian Dollar, EUR stays in a downtrend. Looking exterior of current losses, the Euro has been on the decline since December 2020, however help at 1.4610 – 1.4636 has been proving resilient on the each day chart beneath. Positive RSI divergence has been persisting, displaying fading draw back momentum.

This could open the door to a flip increased, and in such an end result there are a couple of key technical highlights to look at. The first is a near-term falling trendline from December 2021. Clearing increased could open the door to extending features. Then, an extra check may very well be had on the 100-day Simple Moving Average as key resistance. Otherwise, downtrend resumption exposes the 2020 low.

Chart Created in TradingView

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – Daily Chart

How does this translate into EUR/USD? The pair stays in a downtrend for the reason that starting of 2021. Lately, the pair has been consolidating. This has resulted in what seems to be an Ascending Triangle chart formation. The path of the breakout might precede the following development. It ought to be famous {that a} falling trendline from May is quick approaching, which might pivot the pair again decrease.

Downtrend resumption entails clearing the November low at 1.1195. Not a lot additional beneath that sits the June 19, 2020 low. Keep a detailed eye on RSI, the place optimistic divergence could emerge. Extending losses exposes the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.1074 earlier than going through the 78.6% stage at 1.0989. On the flip facet, taking out the ceiling of the triangle at 1.13387 could open the door to retesting 1.1525. The latter previously held as help in October and November earlier than breaking down. It might remerge as resistance.

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?

Chart Created in TradingView

IGCS Outlook – Market Positioning

Taking a take a look at IG Client Sentiment, which may at instances be a contrarian indicator, about 58% of retail merchants are net-long EUR/USD. Since most merchants are bullish, this means costs could proceed falling. However, upside publicity elevated by 16.75% in comparison with yesterday, whereas falling by 12.37% versus one week in the past. With that in thoughts, the mixture of total and up to date adjustments in positioning are providing a blended buying and selling bias.

*IGCS knowledge pulled from January 10th

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the feedback part beneath or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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